The Man-Made Global Warming
Debate and Historical Contradictions
I am a local historian who has stumbled upon
quite a different body of evidence concerning Climate Change and I
have, therefore, come into the Global Warming Debate from a completely
In 2006 I published a historical
investigation which explained the evolution of Derby and the underlying
factor that tied all of the town's various 'mysteries' together was a
changing water level. (The
Rivers of Time, An investigation into the role played by the
Derwent and Trent rivers in shaping the history of Derby, Nottingham
and other towns on the flood plains. ISBN 0 95306037-3)
because I accepted the perceived wisdom that temperatures were higher
today than at any time since the last major Ice Age I blamed the
changing water levels on Glacial Rebound which is the action of the
earth's crust slowly returning to its former position after the loss of
the massive weight of the ice sheets.
As the man-made global
warming argument intensified in the media I realised that I should have
dismissed the supporters of man-made global warming and given greater
consideration to the Medieval Warm Period. I could then have come up
with a more convincing explanation of the effect of river levels on
Derby's formation. Higher river levels had to be driven by higher sea
levels so I set about finding historical evidence for the effects of
the Medieval Warm Period and I found that sea levels were considerably
higher and that it is recorded in the Anglo-Saxon Chronicles.
published an update to my first book under the title The
Man-Made Global Warming Debate and Historical Contradictions - ISBN 0
is of importance is that anyone can verify my evidence by reading the
Anglo-Saxon Chronicles and the evidence can also be tested by either
science or archaeology which is more than can be said for the evidence
presented by the scientific community.
First, a brief review of the historical facts that alerted me to the
possibility of changing river levels over time.
unimportant facts take on a greater significance when looked at in the
light of Derby's history particularly the major floods
from AD 1587 through to AD 1932. This information when coupled with the
AD 1610 map by John Speed and each subsequent map shows that the
ancient part of the town had developed above the flood line whilst
later growth followed the suggested retreating water levels. This is a
process which continues today with outlying development on land to the
south of Derby that was wetland within living memory although improved
land drainage has helped in recent times.
3,600 year old Bronze Age log boat was found buried under the silt in
the Trent floodplain near to Derby. It's location was dry land some 10
metres above the river level before excavation for gravels revealed the
- The earliest Roman fort at Derby was constructed in the
first century on a site known as Strutts Park which stands above the
present day Ordnance Survey 55 metre contour. Within one hundred years
the Romans had moved lock, stock and barrel to Little Chester which is
to the east of Strutts Park on the other side of the river Derwent and
just below the present Ordnance Survey 50 metre contour.
professional dig on Derby's Market Place in the nineteen-seventies
found no evidence of occupation below the 50 metre contour until after
the middle of the eleventh century.
Once I had verified
the local information showing river levels at particular dates using
the Cartulary of Darley Abbey, which covers the period from around the
middle of the twelfth century to the dissolution, and the information
described above I set about searching the Anglo-Saxon Chronicles and
found seventeen definite references indicating high water levels
between AD 656 to AD 1125. These are roughly the dates for the Medieval
A couple of striking entries concern the Ely
rebellion involving Hereward the Wake. I have shortened the text to
highlight the important facts about water levels.
According to the A.D. 1070 entry
above the 'Outlaws' raided Peterborough to steal the treasure then
Ely to deposit it there. In other words there was navigable water
between the two minsters.
- A.D. 1070
- Early in the morning came all the outlaws with many ships, resolving
to enter Peterborough minster….. Afterwards they went to their ships,
proceeded to Ely, and deposited there all the treasure. Then came Abbot
Thorold and eight times twenty Frenchmen with him, all full-armed. When
he came thither, he found all within and without consumed by fire,
except the church alone; but the outlaws were all with the fleet,
knowing that he would come thither....
This entry confirms the
amount of water present between Peterborough and Ely because King
William sent in his naval force from the seaward side of the
minster. This was not a couple of inches of water in a marsh -
this was open navigable water.
- A.D. 1071 - Then went Earl Morkar
to Ely by ship.......Then came Bishop Aylwine, and Siward Barn, and
many hundred men with them, into Ely. When King William heard that,
then ordered he out a naval force and land force, and beset the land
all about, and wrought a bridge, and went in; and the naval force at
the same time on the sea-side.
Having established the high
waters of the Medieval Warm Period I then took a closer look at the
Little Ice Age and discovered that it was probably of greater intensity
than most commentators give it credit for. I wondered whether the
Climate Scientists had underestimated the warmth of the Medieval Warm
Period and the cold of the Little Ice Age causing them to
the present circumstances.
It then occurred to me that man's
influence may not have been in making the climate warmer. It is more
probable that man has cooled the climate and now that efforts are being
made to reduce atmospheric pollution the climate is returning to its
normal higher range.
My evidence seems to suggest an Iron Age
warm period followed by moderate cooling as the Roman Empire expanded.
The first fort at Derby was around the present 55 metre contour whilst
the last fort was just below the present 50 metre contour.
Romans industrialised lead making, iron making and other high
temperature engineering such as tile and brick manufacture. The demands
of the Empire for food production would have led to the clearing by
burning of vast tracts of land. The Romans could, therefore, have been
responsible for sufficient northern hemisphere pollution to activate
global dimming and it's accompanying drop in temperatures.
the sixth century the Roman Empire in northern Europe was faltering
allowing for the Anglo-Saxon invasions and settlement of many of the
Northern territories including England. Mass production associated with
the Roman way of life declined and in its place came a more rural and
greener culture. The Saxons were masters of wood technology and their
habitations reflected this. Certainly, if some cooling had taken place,
the Saxons preference for inherently warmer timber buildings over cold
stone would make sense.
It can be argued that the reduction in
Roman industrial pollution could have lead to a cleaner atmosphere
resulting in higher levels of sunlight. The natural warming which
started after the last Ice Age could recommence and with it would come
the rising water levels documented in The Anglo-Saxon Chronicles. This
warming would continue until the middle of the eleventh century when
the climate started to nose-dive. This was a time of earthquakes in
England and France, (which
I list at the end of my book), so was it also a time of volcanic
activity in the Northern Hemisphere? By coincidence it was also a time
industrialisation was returning courtesy of the monks and their
centralised abbey way of life. The modern industrial
age was in its infancy and would continue over the next nine centuries
driven by the demands of population growth. In the early seventeen
hundreds Thomas Newcomen introduced the atmospheric engine and this was
followed firstly by low pressure steam engines and then the
pressure steam engine which saw the birth and massive increase in
sky was darkening by the day and we were in the grip of the Little Ice
Age. After the fog and smog of the nineteen-fifties came the clean air
acts in the UK and elsewhere. As the sky cleared the temperatures
started to rise again.
If temperature rise is normal it needs to
be planned for accordingly. If there is a short term cycle then there
will be a subsequent temperature fall beginning in two or
hundred years time. If the cycle is long term then a different plan
will need to be put in place to accommodate progressively rising sea
for a review of both books
The Anglo-Saxon Chronicles Online version can be viewed at The
Online Medieval & Classical Library - http://omacl.org/Anglo/
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